The 2017 baseball season provided us with many thrills, ups and downs, and surprises. Now that the Houston Astros have been crowned as champs, who will come next in 2018 or will the Astros repeat their dominance of last year? Here’s an outlook of what’s to come in 2018.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite the boys in blue losing the World Series last year in seven games, I believe the Dodgers will once again win the NL West. They’re also primed (provided they can stay healthy) to make a deep playoff run and get back to the World Series. This time around if they make it that far, I believe they will close the deal and win it.
Prior to even inquiring with free agents on the outside, the Dodgers have over $207 Million in guaranteed commitments. They have a good crop of talent who will be coming up from the minors soon, and also some key extension players on their current roster. Don’t be surprised if we see Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler sometime in 2018, and one if not both could potentially be traded away.
With solid players on their roster like Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, and Joc Pederson, they certainly have some depth and power at the plate. When it comes to the mound, they have a great 3-4 rotation of starting pitchers including Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alex Wood.
Kenta Maeda may be swapped out from starting pitcher to a relief role, something he did well last year in the postseason. When healthy, Julio Urias has shown some promise and potential, but they won’t get him back in the lineup until later in the season. The Dodgers bullpen seems that it will be okay.
Kenley Jansen will be the number one closer for the Dodgers, and other pitchers like Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Ross Stripling and Tony Cingrani will also make key contributions from the pen. The Dodgers I feel have learned that it’s not always the quantity of good players that matters most, but the quality of those that can make a difference, especially in October and down the home stretch.
Houston Astros
With all the success that the World Champion Astros had last season, there’s nothing that tells me that it can’t be duplicated. Houston has an abundance of youth on their roster, especially at the top of their batting lineup. Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa are all 28 years of age or younger.
The Astros had the most dangerous offense last year, as they led MLB in many statistical categories such as batting average, slugging, on base percentage, runs, hits, and doubles. Houston has the best offense in baseball who can score at will on any given day. Last season the Astros became just the 9th team in MLB history to have 9 players finish with an OPS+ of 100 or better with a minimum of 325 plate appearances.
On the mound, the Astros are solid in their starting rotation of pitchers which include the following: Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers Jr., Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, and Collin McHugh. Despite some great starting pitching, I am somewhat concerned about the Astros bullpen. Last year they were very inconsistent at times, but they’ve added Joe Smith and Hector Rondon late last year to team up with veteran hurlers Chris Devenski and Will Harris.
Despite the bullpen being a little shaky, skipper A.J. Hinch will be in good hands with that potent Astros offense and right in the middle of another postseason run at a title in Houston.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs finally broke the “Curse of the Billy Goat” back in November of 2016, winning a World Series after a 108 year drought. Since then skipper Joe Madden has kept them competitive as they once again made the postseason last year before falling to the Dodgers. Coming into the 2018 season, the Cubs have a solid outlook in terms of their batting order which includes some of the following:
Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant. If they can stay relatively healthy, and get solid pitching from the bullpen,the Cubs should be near the top of the NL Central, but we can’t rule out the Cardinals or Brewers either. The Cubs have a projected pitching rotation of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks. Despite their solid starting pitching lineup, one of the bigger concerns surrounding the Cubs is their bullpen and what level of consistency can they obtain.
Hector Rondon has proved previously that he can be a solid reliever, and they also have Pedro Strop and Travis Wood, but they have a lack of depth coming out of the pen. If the Cubs starting pitching is solid and can go into later innings with a somewhat lower pitch count and their bats stay hot at the plate, this can be a temporary “fix” to some of their weaknesses surrounding the bullpen. However, nothing is guaranteed and eventually their lack of strong relievers will come back to hurt them in the long run.
Joe Madden has proven that he can help navigate this or any other team towards contention through his managerial leadership and creativity, but even the most gifted of skippers can only do so much. Getting a lead in a ball game is much easier than actually holding on to it in later innings, particularly when facing an opposition with a strong batting lineup. Only time will tell in the windy city just how much of a force the Cubs will be in 2018.
Washington Nationals
It certainly has been an interesting offseason in Washington, D.C. as the Nationals decided not to extend the 2 year contract for Dusty Baker. Washington is going in a different direction in many ways, but let’s start with the hiring of Dave Martinez as their new manager. General Manager Mike Rizzo indicated that the Nationals “wanted someone who can connect and communicate well with their current roster of players, and someone who also embraces the analytical side of baseball”.
Martinez was formerly the bench coach with the Chicago Cubs and has been mentored by longtime skipper Joe Madden and he was Madden’s bench coach for many years. Not only did the Nats lose Baker, they also had the largest free agent class in baseball, losing some key players to free agency. Gone are right hand relievers Matt Albers, Brandon Kintzler, and Joe Blanton.
Starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and backup catcher Jose Lobaton were also lost in free agency. One thing that is definitively clear is that Matt Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are arguably one of the best 1-2 pitcher combo’s in the majors. Just as with any team in MLB, both Scherzer and Strasburg must stay healthy if the Nationals are to have any chance at contending in the NL East.
The Nationals are also counting on getting help on the mound from pitchers Gio Gonzales, Tanner Roark, and A.J. Cole. What really gets me excited is the batting lineup that Washington has in 2018. Sluggers like Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman will keep things interesting offensively, and a new source of managerial leadership should awaken them as well.
Washington will probably be losing Harper after the 2018 season, since he’ll be a free agent and will probably be cashing in on a huge mega deal elsewhere. The Nats will make an offer to Harper, but it won’t be enough to match what other teams will have. Even after Harper leaves, I believe not only this year but moving forward, the Nationals will still be in contention.
The NL East hasn’t recently been known to be a strong division, especially with the likes of the struggling Braves, Mets, Marlins, and Phillies in rebuild mode. The one team that can compete in my opinion if they can stay healthy is the Mets, particularly with that pitching rotation that they have. The Nats must stay healthy and of course there’s no guarantees that they will win the NL East, but I do like their chances more than the other teams.
New York Yankees
No matter what the circumstances or the situation is in the Big Apple, never count out the Bronx Bombers aka the New York Yankees. Historically speaking this franchise is legendary on many levels. The Yanks have won 27 World Series Championships in 40 appearances.
The Yanks have won more titles than any other franchise in the four major North American sports leagues. With a few new surprises such as Giancarlo Stanton and new skipper Aaron Boone, this 2018 season in New York is going to be exciting to say the least. No one early last season (including myself) thought that the young Yanks would make the noise they did by not only making the playoffs, but knocking off the Indians in a great ALDS.
Let’s start off with the starting pitching rotation of the Yankees which is a good one. Luis Severino was excellent last season (2017 regular season stats: 14-6, 2.98 ERA, 31 starts) CC Sabathia ( 2017 Regular Season Stats 14-5, 3.69 ERA, 27 starts) Sonny Gray struggled at times last year but should have a better season (2017 Regular Season Stats 10-12, 3.55 ERA, 27 starts), and Masahiro Tanaka who struggled early last year but came on late in the season (2017 Regular Season Stats 13-12, 4.74 ERA, 30 starts).
At the plate is where the Yanks will do most of their damage and account for wins. With the addition of Stanton, they will be even more dangerous in terms of extra base hits and home runs. Here’s a glimpse of the potential batting order: Brett Gardner, LF (2017 Regular Season Stats .264 Average, 157 hits, 21 HR, 63 RBI’s) Matt Rourke (coming up from AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre), Aaron Judge RF (2017 Regular Season Stats .284 Average, 154 hits, 52 HR, 114 RBI’s), Giancarlo Stanton DH (2017 Regular Season Stats .281 Average, 168 hits, 59 HR, 132 RBI’s). Giancarlo may hit in third spot if not the fourth, but regardless this lineup presents nightmares to opposing pitchers.
If the Yankees can stay healthy and get good relief pitching from their bullpen and these hitters live up to their potential, I believe they can win the AL East and make a serious run towards the World Series. New York get your popcorn ready as this is one movie that you’ll never want to miss.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks had a good year in 2017. They stayed relatively healthy and had outstanding play from Archie Bradley,Taijuan Walker, Zack Godley, and Robbie Ray. Midseason acquisition J.D. Martinez also belted 29 homers as the D-backs made it to the wildcard game, beating the Rockies before eventually losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS.
With a lot of their payroll tied up in Zack Greinke’s contract, ($34 million), they are somewhat limited on who they can bring in from free agency. They did acquire Brad Boxberger who came over via a trade from the Rays, also Japanese free agent Yoshihisa Hirano, and draft pick Albert Suarez. Archie Bradley is also a good closer who has the ability to pitch multiple innings for Arizona.
Yoshihisa Hirano who played for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan, has closing experience as he saved over 150 games. The biggest question regarding Hirano is will his performance be consistent here in the states at the MLB level as the pace of the game and the hitters here in MLB could pose additional challenges for him. Some other relievers in that D-backs bullpen are Andrew Chafin, Jared Miller, Randall Delgado, Jake Barrett and Jimmie Sherfy.
I believe that it’s going to be difficult for the D-backs to repeat the magic they had last season, but if they can stay healthy and get good relief pitching and consistent hitting behind the plate, Arizona just may make things interesting in the NL West.
Colorado Rockies
Coming off a successful 2017 where the Rockies surprised everyone by making it to the wild card game in the competitive NL West, and despite losing that wild card to Arizona, Colorado has some momentum going into the 2018 season. With skipper Bud Black at the helm, the Rockies became very competitive and won a lot of close games in 2018. Black also created a more “player friendly” environment and under his guidance and leadership the Rockies made some noise last year.
Remember that Colorado did all of this despite their new signee Ian Desmond being hurt for part of the year and when he was in the lineup, he didn’t put up the numbers he’s capable of producing. We believe Desmond will bounce back with a more productive season and hopefully he’ll stay healthy. Outstanding efforts from Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado should continue into the 2018 season.
If Bud Black alters the batting lineup, it would be a great idea to have the speedster Raimel Tapia batting first. In 70 games last year, Tapia had 46 hits. Twelve of those hits were doubles, two triples, and he had thirty singles. Tapia is a serious threat on the bases, and when you have Blackmon, DJ LeMaheiu, and Nolan Arenado right behind him, the Rockies should be scoring runs early and often in their games.
There will be some heavy expectations for Ian Desmond to live up to his 5 yr., $70 million dollar contract that he signed last year with the team. With Coors field being a very hitter friendly ballpark plus a tough road schedule, the Rockies starting pitching and their bullpen will be very vital to their 2018 success. Colorado’s farm system is solid and it’s only getting better.
It’s only a matter of time before we can see if the Rockies will be flying higher in the National League West standings like the Mile High altitude of Colorado.
Milwaukee Brewers
After increasing their win total by 13 games (from 73 to 86) last season, the Milwaukee Brewers come into 2018 with some high expectations. Per their GM David Stearns, it seems that the Brewers are exploring upgrades despite him giving their starters a vote of confidence. Stearns expresses that the Brewers front office has done a solid job of adding to their current depth of players.
Despite coming up a little short last year of reaching the postseason, the Brewers and their manager Craig Counsell feel good about their chances in 2018, as expectations in Milwaukee are high this year. There’s talks that Ryan Braun will be moved around periodically from the outfield to first and second base this season. Milwaukee not only wants to limit the work load on Braun, but by facilitating this move it will also allow them to balance the time demands after adding Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain to the outfield.
Keep in mind that the Brewers also have Domingo Santana in the outfield and some other talented players who are making noise in their current farm system. There are talks that Santana could possibly be moved, but that remains to be seen. The Brewers are loaded in centerfield with Brett Phillips and Keon Broxton.
Despite Broxton posting nearly a 38% strikeout rate, he also was one of nine players in 2017 that was part of the “20-20” group as he was in the 20 homers and 20 stolen bases club. Younger players like Josh Hader and Lewis Brinson should be ready to make key contributions to this ball club in 2018. Milwaukee’s player-position core is one of the best in the NL.
I’m somewhat concerned about their pitching staff, particularly after losing Jimmy Nelson to shoulder surgery as he will miss part of the 2018 season. The Brewers still have hurlers Zach Davies, and Brandon Woodruff. Coming up through their farm system is Corbin Burnes, who last year was their Minor League Pitcher of the year.
Coming out of the bullpen last year, Neftali Feliz was a disappointment but they still have the 32 yr. old Swarzak as well. The biggest question that remains in Milwaukee is if the Brewers can repeat the success of last season, but still have enough gas in the tank at the end of the year to reach the postseason and get over the hump.
Minnesota Twins
In 2017, the Minnesota Twins surprised many folks in baseball including myself. With one of the youngest rosters in the league and a lower third opening payroll, the Twins have pieced together a cohesive unit that shows up and plays hard consistently. Despite losing their 2017 Wild Card game last year to the Yanks, there’s promise in the twin cities.
With lots of momentum coming into the 2018 campaign, I believe the Twins have a great shot to win the AL Central. In order to do that, they must have more solid pitching production from their starters and the bullpen. The Twins have signed Michael Pineda to a 2 yr. deal and Fernando Rodney to a 1 yr. deal with a club option, but they still need to add a few closers coming out of the bullpen.
No one knows what to expect from Trevor May as he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery, and the Twins have a core of young pitchers like Taylor Rodgers, Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, and Ryan Pressly. Last season the bullpen posted an 4.40 ERA, which was the 4th highest in the AL. Per nine innings, they only managed to strike out 7.66 batters, which was the 2nd lowest in baseball next to the Orioles.
They did pick up Zach Duke from St. Louis and Addison Reed from Boston. They recently added from Tampa Bay Jake Odorizzi, who won 10 games last yr. but posted a career worst 4.14 ERA. I really like Jose Berrios, he’s a young pitcher who won 14 games last yr. and posted a 3.89 ERA.
Despite being injured and not expected to return to the lineup until May, Ervin Santana will make an impact upon his return. Santana won 16 games last yr. and posted a 3.22 ERA. The twins must continue to perform from behind the plate as well if they are to repeat and build on the success of last year.
Second baseman Brian Dozier will be a factor, as last yr. he hit 34HR’s and 3rd baseman Miguel Sano added 28 HR’s last season and 77 RBI’s. Sano currently is under investigation for an assault charge, which could put his availability in jeopardy. I expect big things to come from Joe Mauer and younger outfielders Max Kepler and Byron Buxton have potential as well.
Let’s not forget about Left Fielder Eddie Rosario (27 homers last yr.), Eduardo Escobar (21 homers) Jorge Polanco who drove in 74 RBI’s in 2017. Despite being in a smaller market and under the radar, I really like what the Twins are doing and they should continue to be a threat in 2018.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians had an incredible regular season last year, at one point winning 22 straight games and electrifying the baseball world. However, what happens in the regular season means nothing come playoff time. They lost in disappointing fashion to the Yankees in the ALDS.
Many are picking the Indians to repeat as division champs of the AL Central, and based on their roster and personnel, I’m one of them. Longtime veteran baseball manager Terry Francona will have the Indians poised and ready for another playoff run. Cleveland is a well balanced team on the mound and behind the plate.
They finished 3rd in most runs scored in MLB and allowed the fewest runs scored against them in the league. Losing free agents Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana, and Austin Jackson will hurt the Indians, but they still have a loaded roster. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez should ease the pain of those losses, and hopefully Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley can step up and also avoid injury.
A rising star in the minors and one to watch is Francisco Mejia, who mainly is a catcher but can also swap out at 3rd base. It remains to be seen if he’ll move up or stay at AAA Columbus. The Indians also have first baseman Yonder Alonso who signed a 2 yr. deal and OF Brantley who had his options exercised.
Their pitching rotation remains solid with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger.
They did lose Joe Smith and Bryan Shaw from the bullpen so relief pitching for the tribe will have to be addressed along with some offensive holes behind the plate that need to be filled. I think the Twins will push the Indians for the AL Central crown, but eventually Cleveland will pull away with the Twins being a wild card once again.