With just three games left in the regular season, the MLB playoff picture is still wide open. The postseason field hasn’t fully taken shape yet, and multiple teams are hanging onto playoff hopes by a thread. Let’s take a look at which teams are on the cusp of clinching—and what the playoff matchups would look like if the season ended today.
Current Playoff Picture
National League (NL) Seeds:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Chicago Cubs (Top Wild Card)
5. San Diego Padres
6. New York Mets
American League (AL) Seeds:
1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Cleveland Guardians
4. New York Yankees
5. Boston Red Sox
6. Detroit Tigers
Deciding Their Fate
NL Wild Card Drama
There’s only one Wild Card spot still up for grabs in the National League—and the Mets are barely hanging on. They enter the weekend with a half-game lead over the Reds and a 1.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks. All three teams are facing division rivals to close the season.
· Mets: Head to Miami to face the Marlins, who pushed back ace Sandy Alcantara to start Friday.
· Reds: Face the top-seeded Brewers—a tough draw.
· Diamondbacks: Travel to San Diego to face the Padres.
The Mets have the easiest matchup on paper, but will the Brewers or Padres play spoiler even with their playoff spots locked in?
AL: Absolute Chaos
The AL picture is much more chaotic. The Tigers, once the best team in baseball and owners of a 15.5-game lead in the AL Central, are now clinging to the final Wild Card spot. The Guardians have surged past them and currently lead the division by one game.
In the East, the Yankees and Blue Jays are tied for the division lead—and the top seed in the AL. Meanwhile, the Mariners have clinched the AL West, but the Astros are just one game behind the Tigers and still in the hunt.
Here’s who everyone faces this weekend:
· Yankees vs. Orioles
· Blue Jays vs. Rays
· Guardians vs. Rangers
· Red Sox vs. Tigers
· Astros vs. Angels
The Yankees and Blue Jays have easier matchups and could both sweep. If they do, the Blue Jays would claim the No. 1 seed due to the tiebreaker. The Red Sox-Tigers series is especially crucial. If either team gets swept—and the Astros sweep the Angels—Houston could sneak into the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Guardians’ spot atop the AL Central isn’t safe either. If they get swept by Texas, the Tigers could reclaim the division.
Everything is on the line in the AL.
If the Playoffs Started Today…
Let’s take a look at the potential matchups based on current standings.
NL Wild Card: Mets vs. Dodgers — A Rematch, but in the WC?
Just a year ago, the Dodgers had the best record in baseball, only to fall short in the NLDS to the Padres. Meanwhile, the Mets stunned the Phillies in the NLCS. Now, both teams are staring at each other in the Wild Card round.
Neither team has had the season they envisioned. The Dodgers made splashy offseason moves to beef up their rotation and bullpen, but have been plagued by injuries and bullpen inconsistency. The Mets spent over a billion dollars (with nearly $800 million going to one player), only to ride a rollercoaster season full of ups and downs.
This matchup comes down to pitching. Since September 1, the Mets’ rotation has a bloated 5.13 ERA. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are fully healthy and have posted a league-best 2.53 ERA among starters during that same stretch. Their Achilles heel? The bullpen which holds a 5.23 ERA.
If Dodgers starters can go deep and limit bullpen exposure, they should take this series at home.
Padres vs. Cubs: The Friars vs. the Baby Bears
This is the only matchup currently locked in—the Padres and Cubs will face off, with home field still up for grabs. In a short best-of-three series, that home field could be a deciding factor.
Offensively, these teams are very similar. Their team batting averages are nearly identical, and neither has been particularly hot in September—both hovering around .500 with averages near .250.
Pitching is where the separation happens. The Padres rank third in team ERA at 3.64, while the Cubs come in at 3.84. Even more impressive? The Padres bullpen leads MLB with a 3.05 ERA, followed by the Guardians at 3.45.
With elite relief pitching and solid starters, the edge goes to San Diego. If stars like Pete Crow-Armstrong or Kyle Tucker can’t get going for Chicago, the Padres should move on to face the Brewers in the NLDS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox: The Rivalry
While the Yankees are tied with the Blue Jays for the AL East and the top seed, this potential Wild Card matchup would be electric. Yankees vs. Red Sox always brings drama—and this one could be no different.
Imagine a Game 1 duel between Max Fried and Garrett Crochet, setting the tone for a high-stakes series.
The Yankees’ bullpen has been shaky. All-Star closer Devin Williams hasn’t looked like himself, and the trio of high-leverage arms they acquired at the deadline has been underwhelming—except for David Bednar. Meanwhile, former Yankee Aroldis Chapman has found new life in Boston, posting a 1.13 ERA with 32 saves while still hitting 103 mph on the radar gun.
But the Yankees still have the best hitter in baseball—Aaron Judge—who’s having another historic year. Add in former MVP Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Giancarlo Stanton, and this team can punish mistakes fast.
With home field, I think the Yankees survive—but expect three hard-fought games.
Tigers vs. Guardians: Battle for the AL Central
Just a couple of months ago, the Tigers had the best record in baseball and a 15.5-game lead in the AL Central. Now, they’re tied with the Guardians—and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker.
The Tigers’ collapse has been brutal. In September, their rotation and bullpen posted a combined ERA over 5.00, while the offense disappeared. Even All-Star Riley Greene has hit under .230 in the second half.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are surging. They’ve gone 18-6 in September, and their rotation holds a ridiculous 1.35 ERA. They’ve also hit .449 in high-leverage situations—clutch hitting at its finest.
Tarik Skubal gives Detroit a shot in Game 1, but based on recent form, the Guardians look poised to move on and face the Mariners in the ALDS.
Final Word
Nothing is set in stone yet, but one thing is clear: this weekend will be one of the most intense finishes to a regular season we’ve seen in years. With spots and seeding still up in the air, expect playoff-level energy, huge performances, and heartbreaking endings.
Buckle up—it’s going to be wild.